AI Bubble

News media circulates with warnings about speculative bubbles in artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, but history shows that not all bubbles are bad for the economy, and some may even aid long-term growth. In new research, Jared Bernstein, Aneil Kovvali and Jeffery Y. Zhang distinguish between constructive and destructive bubbles and suggest how the government and financial institutions can limit the consequences of the latter.

An accounting rule introduced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in 2016 was designed to address a flaw in the previous regime that contributed to the 2008 Financial Crisis. However, this same rule is enabling the circuit of investments that flows from Big Tech companies to artificial intelligence startups, whose increased valuation from these investments increases the value of the Big Tech companies, which they can then reinvest in the AI startups. The risk is an AI bubble that, if it pops, will also blow up Americans’ savings, writes Hera Hyeonseo Lee.

Americans’ retirement savings are disproportionately tied to the dozen Big Tech firms that now dominate the S&P. This makes any intervention into regulating Big Tech that risks devaluing them politically difficult, writes Hera Hyeonseo Lee.