Development

In recent research, Johnathan S. Hartley and Morris K. Kleiner find that occupational licensing is globally pervasive among both developed and developing nations. However, higher national licensing rates are associated with lower GDP per capita, larger informal sectors, and weaker governance scores.

Summary Teaser: In new research, Jitendra Aswani and William W. Xiong show that countries facing greater risks to their natural assets, from overfishing to deforestation, pay more to borrow, as investors discount their long-run growth prospects. Governments can reduce that premium by implementing green projects that address the risks they actually face, but announcing an intention to do so is not enough.

The green transition is faltering in both advanced and developing economies. While politics and market risk is stalling private investment in clean energy in advanced economies, an imbalanced global value chain is preventing investment in clean energy in developing countries, write Piergiuseppe Fortunato and Verena Hitner Barros.

In new research, Janka Deli analyzes the relationship between the decline in the rule of law and trade. Contrary to democratic and developmental theory, she finds that declines in the rule of law, as seen in Hungary, Poland, and Czechia, do not lead to systematic reductions in trade with other EU partners.  

Recent border carbon measures have relied on the theory that stricter environmental rules in rich countries push pollution-intensive production toward developing economies with weaker regulations. In new research, Irfan Saleem and Giray Gozgor show that the “pollution haven” mechanism is neither automatic nor uniform across industries. Evidence is mixed, often small in magnitude, and highly sensitive to how we measure regulation, model trade, and account for industry mobility.

Matt Lucky reviews Dani Rodrik’s new book, “Shared Prosperity in a Fractured World: A New Economics for the Middle Class, the Global Poor, and Our Climate”

In new research, Pinelopi Goldberg and Michele Ruta analyze how today’s structural, policy, and geopolitical trade conditions are no longer conducive to the trade-led growth miracles many developing countries experienced in the past.

In new research, Bruno Pellegrino and Damien Capelle find that while global capital markets have grown dramatically over the past five decades and reached new jurisdictions, the uneven pace of financial liberalization has failed to reallocate capital to lower-income countries, reduced world GDP by 5.9%, and increased inequality between rich and poor countries.

Stigler Center Assistant Director of Programs Matthew Lucky traces the history of ideas about population growth and its relation to welfare from Malthusian concerns of a population bomb to contemporary studies correlating declining birth rates in developed countries with increased investments in human capital and GDP per capita. Scholars now debate what it means for a society to have populations that do not simply stop growing, but rapidly shrink.

Democracy sees higher GDP due to greater civil liberties, economic reform, increased investment and government capacity, and reduced social conflict. This post originally appeared...